The Quad

Issue date: 11/17/08 Section: Entertainment

It seems like a lot to ask, but the fate of the entire holiday movie season that begins this weekend may hinge on whether one film can live up to its pre-release hype: "Twilight."

It's a movie that many may not have heard of, from a studio that is probably more of an unknown quantity: Summit Entertainment. It has big shoes to fill as it's standing in for an installment of the powerhouse "Harry Potter" franchise, which was postponed until next summer. And it's a microcosm of what's ahead for the industry this holiday season as few proven franchises are hitting screens this year.

Anyone with a teenager who has been dragged to a midnight release of any of the books in the "Twilight" series by author Stephenie Meyer already knows the film is bound for a big opening weekend when it debuts Nov. 21.

Whether it can keep the industry on its near-record pace in domestic receipts could be another story, depending on how long the film's appeal lasts. Now that "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" won't hit theaters until July, there are mostly unknown quantities this holiday season.

"It looks like a quiet holiday season," said Brandon Gray, president of BoxOfficeMojo.com. "I wish it were a bit more exciting but hopefully there'll be some surprise successes."

While there are two better-known films preceding "Twilight" _ DreamWorks Animation's "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" and the latest James Bond film from Sony Corp., "Quantum of Solace" there are mostly unknown quantities until year's end.

That means if "Twilight" can draw audiences into theaters well into December, it could bode well for some of the other movies expected to make their way on to the big screen between Thanksgiving and New Year's.

So far, the signs are good. Close to 100 show times on the day of "Twilight's" debut are sold out, according to online ticket seller Fandango Inc. It already comprises 63 percent of the broker's sales, already outdistancing both "Madagascar" and "Quantum."

"I think 'Twilight' is going to be a big, big hit," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Media By Numbers.

If so, it could not only lift the fortunes of holiday box office in a foundering economy, it might elevate Summit into a formidable player among Hollywood studios.

Summit has been in the business for more than a decade, usually handling foreign sales of such films as "The Blair Witch Project," "American Pie" and 2006 Academy Award nominee, "Babel." It also helped produce "Mr. & Mrs. Smith," "Insomnia" and "Memento."

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